The Effect of the El Niño Phenomenon on the Occurrence of Forest and Land Fires in Muaro Jambi Regency, Jambi Province

Abstract

Introduction: Lower respiratory tract infections remain a major cause of morbidity and antibiotic exposure in children. Objective: his study analyzed the influence of El Niño on forest and land fires during 2015–2025. Method: A mixed-methods design combined descriptive, correlation, and spatial analyses of ONI, rainfall, temperature, humidity, hotspots, and burned area, supported by interviews. Results and Discussion: Pearson analysis (n = 132) showed weak correlations between ONI and hotspots (r = 0.167; p = 0.055) and burned area (r = 0.171; p = 0.050), but a significant correlation with rainfall (r = −0.239; p = 0.006). One-month lagged rainfall correlated strongly with hotspots (r = −0.425; p < 0.001), while humidity showed the strongest correlations with hotspots (r = −0.599) and burned area (r = −0.643; both p < 0.001). Conclusion: El Niño indirectly increases fire risk through reduced rainfall and humidity, supporting early warning and peatland fire mitigation